Author Derek Goh and Stephanie Ramsey
Published April 2019
Report Type Bureau Brief No. 139
Subject Assault; Crime statistics; Theft / Property crime
Keywords Trends, crime statistics, property crime, violent crime

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the trends in the rates of annual recorded incidents of 10 categories of property and violent crime for the period 1990 to 2018 in New South Wales (NSW).


Offence rates were calculated using criminal incident data from the NSW Police Force Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for the period 1995 to 2018, and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research’s recorded crime statistics report series for the period 1990 to 1994. Kendall’s trend test was run on the 28 annual rates for each of the 10 offence categories.


Some categories of crime in NSW are now at the lowest recorded levels they have been for over 25 years. Comparing per capita rates of crime in 2018 with per capita rates in 1990, lower rates were found for: robbery with a firearm (88% lower); motor vehicle theft (82% lower); break and enter non-dwelling (79% lower); break and enter dwelling (67% lower); robbery without a weapon (63% lower); robbery with a weapon not a firearm (60% lower) and murder (56% lower). Three of the ten offence types analysed in this report were found to have recorded rates higher in 2018 than in 1990: sexual assault (168% higher); other sexual offences (128% higher) and assault (59% higher).


In the period since 1990, sexual assault and other sexual offences rates recorded long term upward trends whilst the other eight offences analysed in this report were trending down or stable. The 2018 recorded sexual assault rate was the second highest recorded since 1990 (the 2017 rate was the highest inthe series). The three robbery and three property crime series all recorded falls of above 73 per cent since 2000.

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