Author Boris Beranger, Don Weatherburn and Steve Moffatt
Published December 2010
Report Type Bureau Brief No. 54
Subject Aboriginal / Indigenous Australians; Court processes and delay; Driving offences; Statistical methods and modelling
Keywords Indigenous, court, rehabilitation, driving offences, simulation

Download this publication



To examine the relationship between the number of Indigenous defendants appearing in the NSW Local Court and the rate of Indigenous recidivism.


A simple model of the Indigenous recidivism process was developed and then used to simulate the effect of changes in the rate of Indigenous recidivism.


Reducing the rate of Indigenous recidivism is an effective way of reducing the over-representation of Indigenous defendants in court. A 20 per cent reduction in the rate of Indigenous re-appearance in the court system, for example, would reduce the ratio of Indigenous to non-Indigenous Local Court appearances from 1 in every 9.6 cases to 1 in every 18.6 cases.


Efforts to reduce Indigenous over-representation in the criminal justice system should be focussed on offender rehabilitation and assistance in promoting compliance with court orders.

Download this publication