Author Lucy Snowball
Published March 2011
Report Type Bureau Brief No. 57
Subject Bail / Remand; Children, juveniles and young people; Offenders; Recidivism / Re-offending
Keywords Juvenile offending, police remand, re-offending, bail

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To determine whether the police are remanding offenders with a low risk of re-offending.


First a model of juvenile re-offending was developed based on offender characteristics available to the police at the time of the bail decision. This model was then used to predict the probability of re-offending for a sample of 23,667 juveniles, 29.1 per cent of whom had been remand by the police. The others had either been released on bail or unconditionally released. The probabilities were grouped into deciles and compared for the police remand and the non police remand groups.


After determining the risk of reoffending for the sample of juvenile defendants, it was clear that on average those held on police remand had a high risk of re-offending. However the police are granting bail to a number of high risk offenders.


There is no evidence that the police are remanding juveniles who are at a low risk of re-offending.

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