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cjb76.pdfcjb76 
 AuthorJonathan Clark and Bronwyn Lind 
 PublishedMay 2003 
 Report typeCrime and Justice Bulletin No. 76 
 SubjectCourt processes and delay, Policing 
 KeywordsNSW Criminal Justice System, courts, police process 
  
 

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Summary

Aim

Aim
This bulletin documents improvements made to the model since its initial development. The process of re-estimating parameters for the model utilising improved data sources is described, as are new methods for setting the number of finalisations in each court stock and for determining initial court stock values.

Abstract

Abstract
In 2001 the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research developed a stock and flow model to simulate the adult criminal justice system in New South Wales. The purpose of the model is to simulate the effects of policy changes and thereby provide a decision-support tool for policy makers. This bulletin documents improvements made to the model since its initial development. The process of re-estimating parameters for the model utilising improved data sources is described, as are new methods for setting the number of finalisations in each court stock and for determining initial court stock values. Other changes include transferring the model into a new software package and the simulation of seasonality in projected input for the model. A comparison with the original version of the model demonstrates a significant increase in predictive accuracy.