CJB76
The New South Wales criminal justice system simulation model: Further developments
|
Author
|
Jonathan Clark and Bronwyn Lind |
|
Published
|
May 2003 |
|
Report Type
|
Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 76 |
|
Subject
|
Court processes and delay; Policing
|
|
Keywords
|
NSW Criminal Justice System, courts, police process |
Download this publication
Summary
Aim
This bulletin documents improvements made to the model since its initial development. The process of re-estimating parameters for the model utilising improved data sources is described, as are new methods for setting the number of finalisations in each court stock and for determining initial court stock values.
Abstract
In 2001 the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research developed a stock and flow model to simulate the adult criminal justice system in New South Wales. The purpose of the model is to simulate the effects of policy changes and thereby provide a decision-support tool for policy makers. This bulletin documents improvements made to the model since its initial development. The process of re-estimating parameters for the model utilising improved data sources is described, as are new methods for setting the number of finalisations in each court stock and for determining initial court stock values. Other changes include transferring the model into a new software package and the simulation of seasonality in projected input for the model. A comparison with the original version of the model demonstrates a significant increase in predictive accuracy.