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CJB76

Author Jonathan Clark and Bronwyn Lind
Published May 2003
Report Type Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 76
Subject Court processes and delay; Policing
Keywords NSW Criminal Justice System, courts, police process

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Summary

Aim

This bulletin documents improvements made to the model since its initial development. The process of re-estimating parameters for the model utilising improved data sources is described, as are new methods for setting the number of finalisations in each court stock and for determining initial court stock values.

Abstract

In 2001 the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research developed a stock and flow model to simulate the adult criminal justice system in New South Wales. The purpose of the model is to simulate the effects of policy changes and thereby provide a decision-support tool for policy makers. This bulletin documents improvements made to the model since its initial development. The process of re-estimating parameters for the model utilising improved data sources is described, as are new methods for setting the number of finalisations in each court stock and for determining initial court stock values. Other changes include transferring the model into a new software package and the simulation of seasonality in projected input for the model. A comparison with the original version of the model demonstrates a significant increase in predictive accuracy.