AP34
Are drug arrests a valid measure of drug use? A time series analysis
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Author
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Steve Moffatt, Wai-Yin Wan and Don Weatherburn |
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Published
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August 2012 |
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Report Type
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Affiliated publication |
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Subject
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Drugs and Drug Courts; Policing; Statistical methods and modelling
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Keywords
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Amphetamine type substances, Arrest, Australia, Cocaine, Crime, Drug markets, Drugs, Emergency department admission, Emergency treatment, Hospitals, Overdose, Police, Time series |
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Summary
Aim
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether trends in arrests for heroin, amphetamine-type substances (ATS) and cocaine can be used as indicators of trends in the use of these drugs.
Key findings
Strong positive correlations were found for the narcotics and cocaine series between arrests and EDs in the same month (contemporaneous correlation) and between arrests in the current month and overdoses in earlier months (lagged correlation). The contemporaneous correlation between ATS arrests and EDs was slightly less strong than the lagged correlations at two and four months. A jump in ATS EDs, was followed by a jump in arrests in the same month and then two and four months later.
Method
The question was addressed using ARIMA models to analyse the relationship between arrests and emergency department (ED) admissions for narcotics, amphetamine type substances (ATS) and cocaine.
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